This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we ought to have a big edge this week if we put in the work. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these titles they have never heard and will just be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a big score. I’ll personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card that Sunday and I believe we’ll see a lot of people making errors in cash games. Any time I think I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to stack it into my money games and lock those points. I believe this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we can observe numerous knockdowns too which would help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points combined with both of these men. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we just need to find another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP play of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think this matchup was put up for Bermudez a triumph. He has a very slick entry game and if this fight goes to the floor I think he will pick up advance points fast and find a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his profession and even if he is winning on the feet, he shoots for takedowns each struggle. I believe if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go for it himself and it will cost him. I believe we can observe a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily pay off this price . He has 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I would not be shocked if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the last couple of years but I believe he has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I really do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I believe you want some exposure to Rua if you are making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my selections being correct and that I can hit the right combo. It is hard to choose one favourite fade this week however I shall select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I believe he will use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that seems good on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. However, he does not chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much completing ability and that I don’t see him getting a entry. But I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he is my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every fight, my private strategies & recommendations, along with also my select prediction for every struggle then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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