This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it is always nice once you are already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the best, but there is still a great deal of cash to be obtained. I will be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at those huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC battles have all been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games because we can lock in a win and get all the points in the very best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this battle. But with that triumph locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to need to pay $9.5k to get a man like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I think that is what most folks will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we’ll get him in a marginally lower possession due to his large salary, and he has a very good shot at getting a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, then I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up a finish in this fight so I will throw him some GPPs and hope he is beneath possessed.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless value play of this week. Currently, Fili is your gambling favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it is available so that I think he is in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments with the value we are becoming on him, but I am willing to eat that chalk and that I don’t want to get burnt by entirely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to call, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a good chance at winning this battle. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I would prefer MJ although not by a lot. At $7.5k we do not need a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he is the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal bias but I will not possess Drew Dober in some of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has just proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to attack. I think this will be a striking battle also and I think that it’s going to be closer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll require a finish from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I’ll just be paying up someplace since I am not sure he can get that finish and that I would not be shocked if he lost the struggle. I will say I never seem to use Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each fight, my personal strategies & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every single fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: